Too Much, Too Soon: Why the Longhorns' ranking is too high

In keeping with tradition, it's about time I take a long look at the Texas Longhorns as they prepare to enter the 2011 season. To clear the air a little, I'll admit once again that I'm a diehard Horns fan, but I also always stay true to the ways of ethical journalism by not letting my allegience cloud my writing. So, what you read here is not personal bias, but personal opinion.

Last season was a disaster for the Longhorns, who had played for the BCS National Championship the previous year and fell short. The trasition from Forty Acres legend Colt McCoy to All-Hype freshman Garrett Gilbert was supposed to be bumpy, but not as rough as what transpired during the 2010 campaign.

As a sophomore quarterback, Gilbert and the Longhorns stumbled to a 5-7 record, their first losing season since 1997. Gilbert threw 10 touchdown passes and was picked off 17 times. He had just two games in which he passed for more touchdowns than interceptions. For a former top QB recruit in the nation coming out of high school, things just weren't supposed to be this bad.

But what's done is done. Let's talk about the 2011 season. In particular, let's discuss Texas' preseason ranking. The USA Today poll has Texas at #24.

That's too high. Here are 3 reason why:

1. QB Controversy

One of the biggest questions Texas has to answer entering the 2011 season is, "Who will play quarterback?" While Gilbert has the experience, his performance last season coupled with a subpar showing during the Longhorns' spring game has the Burnt Orange Nation begging for a change. But the other options aren't much better. Case McCoy was good during the spring game, but he's inexperienced, and the other QB's on the roster are freshmen. Some reports have leaked tat Mack Brown has secretly informed Gilbert he will be the starter, but just how short will the leash be if Gilbert can't succeed early?

2. New Schemes = Adjustment Period

Finally, Texas parted ways with offensive coordinator Greg Davis, who caused me more headaches last year than anybody. I blame Davis for most of Gilbert's failures as a QB last season, for dumbing down the offense and clamping down Gilbert's arm instead of giving him the chance to make plays downfield. Replacing Davis is Bryan Harsin, who spent the last decade at Boise State directing an offensive attack that was consistently among the best in the nation. However, the Horns will also have to adjust on the defensive side, where Will Muschamp vacated his DC position to take over as head coach in Gainesville. To me, the biggest adjustment will be on the defensive side. It will take some time.

3. The Competition Has Caught Up

One of the most overlooked reasons why I believe Texas' ranking to be too high is because their list of opponents is better than ever. Many of the teams on the schedule are the same, including non-conference foe Rice, but most of them have made big improvements over the past few years. Just taking a glance at the schedule, I see a handful of likely losses for this Longhorn squad, including BYU, UCLA, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Baylor. In case you lost count, that's seven potential losses, just like last season.

Now don't get carried away, thinking I'm jumping off the bandwagon after last year's dismal season and bagging on the Horns now. That's the last thing I'd do. Texas could very well win eight games this season, and I still believe that Gilbert will develop into a top quarterback (I honestly see 2011 as his breakout year). But I am gonna give it to you straight: Righting this ship will take more than one season.

Texas will get back to its dominating ways in the years to come, and they may even finish the 2011 good enough to be in the Top 25, but it's way too early to call this Texas team one of the best in the land. Much too early.